My AI/LLM predictions for the next 1, 3 and 6 years, for Oxide and Friends

LLM predictions for 2026, shared with Oxide and Friends

I joined a recording of the Oxide and Friends podcast on Tuesday to talk about 1, 3 and 6 year predictions for the tech industry. This is my second appearance …

25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI

With a review of last year’s predictions

2025: The year in LLMs

This is the third in my annual series reviewing everything that happened in the LLM space over the past 12 months. For previous years see Stuff we figured out about …

2025: The year in LLMs

This is the third in my annual series reviewing everything that happened in the LLM space over the past 12 months. For previous years see Stuff we figured out about …

Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?

41% chance. Resolves to YES if any LLM released in 2026 exceeds the superforecaster baseline on ForecastBench by July 2027. Resolves to NO if this does not happen, or if after January 1, 2027 we have results from enough LLMs (e.g. the leading models from the major AI labs at the time) to be confident this will not occur. If The Forecasting Research Institute tells us how this market should resolve, then we will go with what they say.

Where will AI be at the end of 2027? A bet

We, Gary Marcus, author, scientist, and noted skeptic of generative AI, and Miles Brundage, an independent AI policy researcher who recently left OpenAI and is bullish on AI progress, have agreed to the following bet, at 10:1 odds, with criteria drawn from two earlier Substack essays by Gary that proposed criteria for

John Battelle's Search Blog Predictions 2024: It’s All About The Data

Let’s talk 2024. 2023 was a down year on the predictions front, but at least I’ve learned to sidestep distractions like Trump, crypto, and Musk. If I can avoid talking about the joys of…

576 - Using LLMs at Oxide | RFD | Oxide

Large language models (LLMs) are an indisputable breakthrough of the last five years, potentially profoundly changing the way that we work. As with any extraordinarily powerful tool, LLM use has both promise and peril — and that they are so general-purpose leaves real questions about how and when they should be used. The landscape is shifting so rapidly that static prescription is unlikely — but that LLMs are evolving so quickly also gives urgency to the question: how should LLMs be used at Oxide?

576 - Using LLMs at Oxide | RFD | Oxide

Large language models (LLMs) are an indisputable breakthrough of the last five years, potentially profoundly changing the way that we work. As with any extraordinarily powerful tool, LLM use has both promise and peril — and that they are so general-purpose leaves real questions about how and when they should be used. The landscape is shifting so rapidly that static prescription is unlikely — but that LLMs are evolving so quickly also gives urgency to the question: how should LLMs be used at Oxide?

Joshua Achiam on Twitter / X

There is a fact about the future that I feel many people are not facing for reasons that are largely psychological: there are going to be rogue AIs that exist in the world, that will replicate in the wild, and that will attempt to acquire resources for themselves. There will be…— Joshua Achiam (@jachiam0) September 1, 2026

Monthly Roundup #47: October 2026

AI might not yet be eating the physical world.

Introducing AI 2027

Or maybe 2028, it's complicated

My 2026 Open Social Web Predictions - Tim Chambers

Predictions for 2026 include growth forecasts for various social media platforms, advancements in federated technologies, and anticipated shifts in how …

AI 2027

A research-backed AI scenario forecast.