AI 2040: Plan A
A detailed forecast and recommendation for how the US, China and the rest of the world should navigate superintelligence.
AI 2040: Plan A
A detailed forecast and recommendation for how the US, China and the rest of the world should navigate superintelligence.
Dean W. Ball on Twitter / X
Ok two more:1. AI will enable the design of custom enzymes that can catalyze industrial processes and chemical manufacturing faster than existing methods. In some cases this will make existing chemicals cheap enough that it becomes possible to use them for totally new use… https://t.co/jL3bNm0s9w— Dean W. Ball (@deanwball) October 9, 2026
Dean W. Ball on Twitter / X
The mood has been a bit dour lately, so here are some less-obvious things that I expect to take shape over the next decade that I am excited about:1. Space! Lots and lots of stuff is going to be happening in space by the mid-2030s, and right now the U.S. looks like it will be…— Dean W. Ball (@deanwball) October 9, 2026
How Accurate Have AI Progress Forecasts Been So Far? – Forecasting Research Institute
We take an initial look at where median forecasts are (mostly) underestimating and (sometimes) overestimating AI progress, adoption, and impact.
Collection
Updated 1d
A compilation of ideas and writing where there is some prediction of the future so that we can look back one day and compare.