Prophecy: Prediction, Power, and the Fight for the Future, from Ancient Oracles to AI
From an award-winning University of Oxford professor comes a brilliant, urgent new look at prophecies--the predictions that determine our lives, from our personal finances and the quality of our healthcare to the news and social media we consume and the produces foisted upon us
AI 2040: Plan A
A detailed forecast and recommendation for how the US, China and the rest of the world should navigate superintelligence.
AI 2040: Plan A
A detailed forecast and recommendation for how the US, China and the rest of the world should navigate superintelligence.
Joshua Achiam on Twitter / X
There is a fact about the future that I feel many people are not facing for reasons that are largely psychological: there are going to be rogue AIs that exist in the world, that will replicate in the wild, and that will attempt to acquire resources for themselves. There will be…— Joshua Achiam (@jachiam0) September 1, 2026
Forecasting Research Institute on Twitter / X
Introducing the Automated AI Risk Outlook (AIRO): a dashboard of catastrophic risk forecasts from an ensemble of frontier AI models, updated weekly.Current ensemble forecasts of an AI-related catastrophe that kills at least 10% of the global population:• By 2030: 0.47%• By… pic.twitter.com/vc7F00L0Oa— Forecasting Research Institute (@Research_FRI) September 11, 2026
Zhijing Jin on Twitter / X
🚀 Can #AI agents actually do science?Current agents can optimize for predictive fit — but fail at recovering the underlying physical laws.We introduce Stargazer🪐: a scalable benchmark + environment for astronomical discovery🔭Agents must:• propose hypotheses•… pic.twitter.com/hGIjz4KJMT— Zhijing Jin (@ZhijingJin) May 7, 2026
Import AI 458: Reckoning with the future; and a singularity story
What AI-driven miracles will happen this year?
Position: Don't Just "Fix it in Post": A Science of AI Must Study Training Dynamics
What would it mean to have a scientific understanding of AI? Models are not static objects: they are snapshots of time-evolving processes shaped by data, objectives, architectures, and optimization dynamics. Yet much of AI research treats models as fixed artifacts, analyzing behaviors after training rather than asking why they emerge. This position paper argues that a science of AI must move beyond post-hoc fixes and study the training dynamics that produce model behavior. Such a science should support progressively stronger forms of understanding: predicting outcomes from early training signals, intervening when trajectories go wrong, and ultimately designing training procedures that more reliably produce desired properties. Scaling laws have made prediction routine for loss; the challenge is extending this success to capabilities, biases, robustness, and safety-relevant behaviors. We articulate requirements for such theories grounded in the history and philosophy of science, examine progress in mechanistic interpretability, fairness, memorization, and simplicity bias, and identify concrete open problems.
Import AI 452: Scaling laws for cyberwar; rising tides of AI automation; and a puzzle over gDP forecasting
How much could AI revolutionize the economy?
"Efforts to predict the future go hand-in-hand with efforts to control it. Rebel against tyrannical predictions. Let's be brave enough to imagine and fight for a better world." 💙
Carissa Véliz
A culture of divination has grown all around us - from machine learning, to prediction markets, and forecasting of all kinds, not to mention psychics and astrology. But have you ever wondered what, exactly, is in a prediction? TED talk: youtube.com/watch?v=OS4wHmKtH-Q #PROPHECY #authors
Collection
Updated 1d
A compilation of ideas and writing where there is some prediction of the future so that we can look back one day and compare.
AI and the future(s) of [insert domain here]
AI Tools for Academic Research
Survey Shield
Scimeto - Automated Manuscript Integrity Checker
jusi-aalto/strategic-revision
The Metacheck Manual
Getting Started with Claude Code: A Researcher’s Setup Guide
RegCheck
