With fundamental technology change, we don't so much get our predictions wrong as make predictions about the wrong things.
Presentations — Benedict Evans
Every year, I produce a big presentation exploring macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. New in May 2025, ‘AI eats the world’.
Our Uncertain Uncertainties
Even the experts inventing AI don’t know what will happen next.
The Expert Trap and the Next War
what forecasting failure tells us about the future
On technological optimism and technological pragmatism
"There are no guarantees that things are going to turn out very well for anyone.”
Europe 2031 — What getting AI wrong means for us
A five-year scenario about AI and Europe's impending slide into irrelevance, with a 2034 epilogue that describes how the collapse of the European model could have been prevented.
Prophecy: Prediction, Power, and the Fight for the Future, from Ancient Oracles to AI
From an award-winning University of Oxford professor comes a brilliant, urgent new look at prophecies--the predictions that determine our lives, from our personal finances and the quality of our healthcare to the news and social media we consume and the produces foisted upon us
The future belongs to those who can refute AI, not just generate with AI
Why verification, not prompting, could shape the next decade of engineering
If AI is normal technology, history is not reassuring. — LessWrong
There’s a truism that technology is good - even if it creates winners and losers, it improves the world. Toby Ord argues that the conclusions about t…
Cory Doctorow: The people who tell you ‘AI is changing everything’ are lying
It has become impossible to tell managers mesmerised by artificial intelligence that the tools are not, in fact, helpful. So employees just play along with the fiction to keep their jobs, writes our tech columnist
The End of Mathematics — Daniel Litt
I'm currently returning to Toronto from a summit on the future of mathematics, at OpenAI. Sebastian Bubeck asked me to talk a bit about the future we'd all like to avoid, where humans are mathematically disempowered. Jacob Tsimerman advised us to try to prioritize detail over correctness, and I have no doubt that I succeeded in deprioritizing correctness.
Dr. Émile P. Torres (they/them) on Twitter / X
What's amazing about this is every time there's a new grand prediction about AI, it's like people forget the 500 previous predictions from the same group of people that were completely wrong. AI by 2025 (Musk). AI doing most coding by 2025 (Amodei). Etc. Why is that?? https://t.co/t9CcMQO4EN— Dr. Émile P. Torres (they/them) (@xriskology) January 28, 2026
70 years of AI hype
Quoting from Olivia Guest et al. (2025) "Against the Uncritical Adoption of AI Technologies in Academia."
The signal and the noise: why so many predictions fail - but some don't
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of …
The mistake we all make... and the simple experiment that reveals it
Your answer reveals how you see the world – and the common error that hampers our decision making. In an extract from his new book, psychologist Richard Nisbett reveals the ‘mindware’ to help us think smarter
Science: A New Golden Age
President Trump seeks to lay the foundations for a new Golden Age of American Innovation. The Trump administration is working to revitalize the national science enterprise, to secure U.S. leadership in emerging technologies against foreign rivals, and to ensure that all of America’s citizens will benefit from new scientific breakthroughs and technological transformations. The President understands the American story as one of ambition, discovery, and invention, of pioneers who forever seek new frontiers for exploration, particularly now in science and technology.
