Capital efficiency for pros, leverage for bettors, rich yields for market makers, and a dangerous failure mode.
Four Futures
We are in a moment where the future is both wildly exciting and highly uncertain. The future state and greatest opportunities are likely determined by the axes: rate of advancement and the openness of the frontier models.
A Star Investor's Tale of Risk, Ruin & Reinvention w/ Victor Haghani (RWH071)
Exocapitalism: economies with absolutely no limits
There is a touch of destiny with this one. We have real…
Hedge Funds: Even Millennium and Citadel's Losing Traders Are Hot Recruits
With talent in short supply, top firms are looking at rival loss-making portfolio managers as a rare hiring opportunity.
Anomalies: Saving, Fungibility, and Mental Accounts
Last New Year's day, after a long evening of rooting the right team to victory in the Orange Bowl, I was lucky enough to win $300 in a college football betting pool. I then turned to the important matter of splurging the proceeds wisely. Would a case of champagne be better than dinner and a play in New York? At this point my son Greg came in and congratulated me. He said, "Gee Dad, you should be pretty happy. With that win you can increase your lifetime consumption by $20 a year!" Greg, it seems, had studied the life-cycle theory of savings. The theory is simple, elegant, and rational—qualities valued by economists. Unfortunately, as Courant, Gramlich, and Laitner observe "for all its elegance and rationality, the life-cycle model has not tested out very well." In this column, however, I focus on an assumption of the life-cycle model that has not received very much attention, but which, if modified, can allow the theory to explain many of the savings anomalies that have been observed. The key assumption is fungibility. This column will review a small portion of the empirical savings literature, with the objective of showing how violations of fungibility, and more generally the role of self-control, strongly influences saving behavior.
The Profit Paradox
Glass Half Full: Building a Decarbonized U.S. Power Sector -
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) was built, sold, and attacked as the largest climate investment in U.S. history. […]
Barbell strategy
In finance, a barbell strategy is formed when a trader invests in long- and short-duration bonds, but does not invest in intermediate-duration bonds. This strategy is useful when interest rates are rising; as the short term maturities are rolled over they receive a higher interest rate, raising the value.[1] A contrasting strategy is the bullet strategy, which involves investing only in intermediate-term bonds.
Oil and Gas=Peril and Poverty/ Solar and Wind=Prosperity and Protection
2026 has changed the psychological meaning of energy forever
The future is made of energy | Orca Notes
A megatrend way bigger than decarbonization is probably the key to abundance and sustainability both.
The AI Buildout and the Material Trap
Why Strategic Necessity, Physical Bottlenecks, and Unsettled Economics Are Forcing Capital into a Constrained System
Up the Stack: How AI’s Escape From the Commodity Trap Risks Enterprise Lock-in
Critics and boosters are both looking in the wrong place
