From an award-winning University of Oxford professor comes a brilliant, urgent new look at prophecies--the predictions that determine our lives, from our personal finances and the quality of our healthcare to the news and social media we consume and the produces foisted upon us
Prophecy And Future Coding
Preface: On Prophecy and the Search for Certainty in an Age of Reflexive Time
Joshua Achiam on Twitter / X
There is a fact about the future that I feel many people are not facing for reasons that are largely psychological: there are going to be rogue AIs that exist in the world, that will replicate in the wild, and that will attempt to acquire resources for themselves. There will be…— Joshua Achiam (@jachiam0) September 1, 2026
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This is a long article, so I've broken it up into a series of posts, listed below. You can also read the full work as a PDF or EPUB.
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"2026 will mark the rise of algorithmic witnessing — a movement that uses AI not to replace journalists, but to extend the reach of the communities they serve."
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Forecasting is a universal problem. Any system that makes informed judgments about what may happen in the future relies on at least some degree of forecasting. In agriculture, this takes the form of predicting future crop yields and food system resilience (5; 44; 33). In biotechnology and medicine, clinical trials are carefully designed to help researchers predict the impact of newly developed treatments (37; 7). Elsewhere in biology, AlphaFold can be viewed as a form of forecasting protein folding structure under uncertainty (19). In academia, grant funding is a form of forecasting which scientific discoveries will be made conditional on funding (48). Climate and environmental science models local and long-term weather trends, which are of universal importance (42; 35; 12). In political science, forecasting election outcomes and the impact of policy decisions are an essential component of political calculus (17; 53; 10). Militaries make use of forecasting for threat assessment and conflict predictions (58; 36). Forecasting is the very heartbeat of financial firms, which use it to estimate future economic conditions in an uncertain world (49). Wherever there is uncertainty about the future, there is forecasting.
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"Efforts to predict the future go hand-in-hand with efforts to control it. Rebel against tyrannical predictions. Let's be brave enough to imagine and fight for a better world." 💙
Carissa Véliz
A culture of divination has grown all around us - from machine learning, to prediction markets, and forecasting of all kinds, not to mention psychics and astrology. But have you ever wondered what, exactly, is in a prediction? TED talk: youtube.com/watch?v=OS4wHmKtH-Q #PROPHECY #authors
